According to a recent report, human fossil fuel emissions are jeopardizing a crucial climate threshold at a rate twice as fast as initially believed.
Scientists suggest that the 1.5°C temperature limit might be consistently exceeded by 2029, a significant shift from the previous projection of the mid-2030s. This accelerated trend is attributed to record levels of carbon dioxide emissions in the last three years and an improved understanding of the impact of fossil fuel combustion on the atmosphere.
Following a year characterized by unparalleled heat, including the hottest month on record in July, it is anticipated that the global temperatures for the entirety of 2023 will be near 1.5°C above the pre-industrial benchmark, which dates back to a period prior to the extensive utilization of coal, oil, and gas around 1850.
Although the current temperature increase might be considered an isolated occurrence, scientists express concerns that ongoing greenhouse gas emissions could lead to a more prolonged maintenance of temperatures at this elevated level. They emphasize that the rising concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere contribute to temperature increases by trapping the Earth’s radiation, resulting in a greenhouse effect.
The 1.5°C target plays a crucial role in the commitments made by political leaders who endorsed the Paris climate agreement in 2015. They pledged to limit the global temperature rise to “well below” 2°C and strive to cap the increase at 1.5°C during this century, signifying the significance of this particular threshold in their climate goals.
The 1.5°C target holds special significance for developing nations and small island states, as they are concerned that surpassing this level of warming could lead to rising sea levels that threaten their very existence.
In order to determine the time it will take to reach this critical threshold, scientists have established a “carbon budget.” This budget represents the remaining amount of carbon emissions that can be released before the 1.5°C limit is exceeded.
Earlier in the year, the IPCC stated that the world could emit around 500 billion tons more of carbon to have a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C. With current emissions at about 40 billion tons annually, the IPCC estimated crossing the limit by the mid-2020s. However, this new analysis, considering emissions from the last three years and non-carbon factors, suggests it will happen even sooner.
Sooty aerosols, generated primarily from fossil fuel combustion, play a crucial role. While they contribute to air pollution, they also cool the atmosphere by reflecting sunlight. The recent research shows that these aerosols have a more significant cooling effect than previously believed. However, efforts to reduce urban air pollution and limit the use of heavily polluting fossil fuels decrease aerosol levels, causing temperatures to rise more rapidly than expected.
This revised understanding reduces the remaining 1.5°C budget by 100 billion tons, along with additional carbon emissions and minor adjustments, resulting in a total remaining budget of 250 billion tons.
Dr. Robin Lamboll from Imperial College London, the lead author, highlights that the opportunity to prevent a 1.5°C temperature increase is diminishing due to ongoing emissions and enhanced knowledge of atmospheric processes. Their estimation indicates that we can release approximately the equivalent of six years’ worth of current emissions before surpassing the crucial Paris Agreement target.
The researchers assert that in order to avoid exceeding 1.5°C of warming, global carbon dioxide emissions must reach net zero by 2034, rather than the current expectation of 2050. However, Professor Joeri Rogelj from Imperial College London points out that there are no feasible socio-technical scenarios in scientific literature to support or describe how such an accelerated transition is possible. This indicates that achieving a 50% or higher likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C is currently considered extremely challenging, regardless of political and policy actions.
While it doesn’t imply an uncontrollable surge to three or four degrees of warming, the most accurate estimates indicate that we are likely to surpass 1.5°C of global warming. With global leaders set to convene at COP28 in Dubai shortly, this new analysis delivers a stark message about the necessity for more aggressive emission reduction measures if the commitment to “keep 1.5°C alive” is to be upheld. Professor Niklas Höhne, Director of the New Climate Institute in Cologne, emphasized that it’s an urgent call to swiftly reduce emissions, likening it to an emergency response.
This analysis underscores the critical importance of every ton of carbon dioxide saved, given the exceptionally tight emissions budget. Even if the multi-year average temperature increase surpasses 1.5 degrees, the conservation of emissions remains valuable, as each ton saved results in a reduction in global temperature rise and, consequently, a reduction in damage.
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